I remember reading a post that I often quote in regards to marriage, yet haven't been able to dig up again. 2000 couples or something like that were asked at the altar what their chances of divorce were. 100% basically said there was zero chance of them divorcing. How crazy is that? Although not entirely accurate, on average every second marriage ends in divorce. Statistically, your chances of failing at marriage are quite high. Nevertheless, so many people go for it anyway. I've written about this before and it bears repeating because I love how people always try to debate irrational things. You can't!
Startups are the same. If you realized how unlikely you were to be successful when launching a business, you wouldn't ever be able to rationalize it yet startups keep happening. As Sarah argues in this post, it's all about irrationality and David Sacks is missing the point. If you think things through and have the burden of hindsight, you'll often pass on opportunities. This has nothing to do with where you're located or what opportunities lay ahead. You're either a crazy motherf$%ker and you just don't care or you take the safe route.
This world has a place for both types. Don't misunderstand me and think we all have to be totally batsh!t crazy. The world needs rational thinkers and is better with them than without. Yet, if you're in the startup space, remember that you have to make a choice. Either you're one of the crazy ones or you're not. You get to choose! Wonderful!