I was speaking with the CEO of a mobile app company recently and discussed an idea I think could have legs. I said to him "what if you ignored all platforms outside of Apple's iPhone and from today on, only developed for the iPhone?" Why you ask? Well, I am convinced that the iPhone is driving a shift in the smartphone market and is truly driving the developments at all its competitors. Yes, you may say that it still has significantly less market share than Nokia or other manufacturers. Yet, take a look at the following points from Dan Frommer:
- 56%
of those planning to buy a smartphone in the next 90 days plan to purchase
an iPhone, up from 35% in March.
- Purchase
interest in Apple is 2x or more than that of other brands surveyed: RIM 23%
(RIMM), Palm 3% (PALM), HTC 2%, Nokia 2% (NOK), Samsung 2%, Motorola 1%
(MOT), others 11%.
- Top
reasons for buying the iPhone include lower price (67%), 3G Internet
connection (63%), GPS (47%), Microsoft (MSFT) Exchange email support
(35%), and third-party apps (20%).
- The jump is the largest interest ahead of any consumer phone launch recorded by RBC's panel since 2003.
I personally believe that enough people will be using the iPhone that you could build a business simply on the back of one platform. You can completely focus on all of the benefits available on the iPhone while avoiding the problem of developing for multiple platforms and configurations, which is practically impossible to do as effectively. Further, via iTunes, you have an extremely easy channel of getting apps to the user. No one has yet figured out how to get users easily installing apps and configuring them. Finally, you don't have to work with the carrier and be pre-installed. Many mobile apps companies now having success are only able to do so when getting in bed with the carrier. This is not a viable long-term option. Hence, I think there is validity to the one platform bet. Kleiner wouldn't have set up an iPhone fund if they also didn't believe in this model. I'm curious to see how many companies I run across in the near term pursuing exactly this strategy.
Update: this could be a stumbling block when "betting the farm".
