There is quite a bit of noise out there now (and for some time now) surrounding social networks. The whole investment side of things has come and gone. I still do believe though that interesting ideas will get funded. The very basic of ideas have been done and if you're starting the next Facebook or whatever, forget it. At the same time, what's been missing for me is the next step. I really am less concerned about monetization when it comes to these networks. If they become more than a passing fad, money can and will be made. There have been a couple of false starts but here and there you are seeing revenue generated. Once consolidation begins, usage numbers will go up per platform and earning opportunities will increase. (Side-note: consolidation for me does not mean FriendFeed or SocialThing. These are simply aggregators of social networks who I am convinced worsen the problem instead of solve it.)
At the same time, what I am more concerned about is the "value" of these networks to their users. I have often already written about becoming ever more fed up with the multitude of platforms I am on. Right now, I'm twittering fairly often and blogging here and there. Facebook has lost its appeal and Xing or LinkedIn are truly "storage" for my business contacts and not much else. The twenty other platforms I joined, I have more or less already forgotten and I could see Twitter getting real old, real soon. Nevertheless I am still seeking out "value". What's next for me as a member of these platforms? Are they really enriching my life? I've watched people who are constantly on these networks (and usually connected to me in some way) and they often seem like social recluses in the real world yet are superstars online. One interesting observation is the variance of activity from "friends". It seems like online networks are a stepping stone. People become quite active when between jobs (or bored in their current job) or in between relationships, whatever. The "network" online becomes a support group. Once the "rough spot" is overcome, usage goes down. I could even imagine for many an alarm signal goes off when they realize they are spending too much time interacting online and eject from this behavior by re-engaging their network of friends offline.
I am sure many folks will argue that you can already derive value from social networks, be it in marketing yourself or your business to earn dollars (see Scobel, Calacanis, Seth Godin, etc.) Further, I am sure arguments can be made that the most popular online superstars have a self-fulfilling prophecy in the sense that their online socialness transfers to offline interactions. Still, I believe this is a very small proportion of the people on these networks and how many "superstars" can really evolve? The guys mentioned before have simply taken networks and turned them into an effective tool driving their business. (Plus, without blowing too much sunshine up their asses, they are extremely good at "marketing" and most likely aren't socially retarded.)
The real next step in these networks is giving people the opportunity to increase true interaction as an effect of their online network. Technically, the dating sites are the ones generating so much revenue because they use an online network simply as a tool to drive offline activity. (Be that activity whatever it is). MySpace was initially so successful because it was used my musicians to interact more with their fans and draw them to their concerts (offline activities). This is what the current players need to master. Give me more interaction offline (be it personally, as part of my business or connected to my hobbies) and you'll receive significantly more of my online loyalty. This is loyalty which would drive me to pay you for usage of your platform.
