A couple of people commented to me both online and off about my post regarding social networks. I've been giving this theme quite a bit of thought in the past couple of weeks and have been discussing it with many people. I have noted many times now that social networks are entertaining but their value quickly evaporates and there truly is no connection from social networks between the online and offline world. I further feel that many social networks are even leading people in a negative direction in the sense that they have ever more online friends and a decreasing number of offline friends ("social solitude"). They may at times meet people whom they are connected to online but I don't believe that a majority of people does this in any way. I already noted that dating sites (social networks in a way) are the only successful online ventures to truly connect the real world using a social network "tool." So what do I see in the future for social networks? Well, here's my thoughts in no particular order.
1. The majority of social networks such as Facebook, MySpace etc. will be bought (if not already purchased) and there will be maybe one or two huge sites (owned probably by MS and Google) who will have the largest number of users. These will no longer though be stand-alone entities and won't resemble what we are used to today in regards to "social networks". They will be extensions of MS and Google, i.e. Outlook , MS Live, Windows Mobile and other MS tools will be connected to this network and in a sense, this network will be a backbone of interaction amongst people. Same goes for Google (their network will mix in Gmail, Android, etc.)
2. Dating sites will become ever more interactive and will lead the way in terms of pulling people from the web into real interactions (just like porn led the evolution of video recorders and the Web as well). Location-based features will be added to dating sites, i.e. I am listed as single, looking and interested in being approached. Whenever I pass my counterpart in the real world, I will be informed of this. There will also be real world takes on online themes (in connection with dating) which will wander into the real world. I could foresee a kind of HotOrNot utility on a phone connecting what HotOrNot does with taking a photo of someone you see, facial recognition and this person getting the rating somehow via a back channel. Scary thought but exciting in some way as well. I know I often take a second look when passing a very attractive (in my opinion) woman on the street. Why not let her know this, happen what may?
3. When you consider that Twitter has become a "presence application", think of the many potential extensions of this idea. I just a couple days ago met up ("TweetUp") with people in Brussels who had twittered they were at the same conference, going out for dinner, and were nearby (actually like 50 feet away). It was a great night. Just think you take off alone for the cafe or wherever you choose to go, your presence is updated as to wherever you are and you can indicate that you are looking to meet people (either casually or in your search for a partner). I am convinced people want to interact and when they can either opt-in or opt-out of real world interaction, they will use the chance. I know I would love this capability when moving to a new town or after breaking up with a partner of spouse, etc. Further, just think how much easier it would be pursue hobbies and find people to do them with being able to find them this way.
4. I also see an extension of the "people you may know" feature from Xing or LinkedIn to the real world. Think about six degrees of separation. Imagine when out and about how may people you pass by who could be only one to two degrees or less of separation away from you. I am sure this would quickly lead to people being incredibly more interactive in the real lives. This feature would quickly take away the need to be introduced and slowly grow your network. You could simply be much quicker to choose whom you want to be friends with in the real world as you would have the ability for immediate interaction.
5. People tend to be much more accountable to one another in the real world as oppossed to online. Just think how people today already can know so much about you when they Google you. The reality is that in the future, the Web will know ever more about you than you think now possible. I laugh at people who fight this with the privacy argument. If you think you can "hide" your lost anyway. Why not turn this around? I rather have whoever meets me know as much of the basics about me as they wish. When basic information about everyone (age, background, relationship status, career, etc.) is immediately available people will only look for it who want to know it. Why make it difficult to find out? Take a phone, a social network back end and location based services and you could be in a cafe and simply "scan" your vicinity without interacting with anyone. At the same time, you would have so much more insight than today possible and I am convinced this is a positive thing for society and people.
These are just thoughts on where I think social networks are going. Some of these ideas are a bit out there but I am convinced they are closer than we think. Maybe I'm overly optimistic but I am convinced people want more interaction as opposed to being secluded and hanging out alone with their computer.
On that note, I am sitting alone in a cafe on a computer. Enough of this! Those two girls across the way are about to make my acquaintance, technology be damned! :-)
